The future of search is to not search at all, comment on article by Harsha Rao and Deepali Jain

The future of search is to not search at all. Harsha Rao and Deepali Jain opened their article http://www.kmworld.com/Articles/Editorial/ViewPoints/How-analytics-is-revolutionizing-search-90335.aspx with this counter-intuitive statement. The article looks at the evolution of analytics as pointing towards technology that is built on a truly intelligent system capable of thinking, understanding and making decisions on its own. One example of technology that has potential to impact mobile technology and search technology is the Google Glass project. The technology has potential to collect data on a user’s interest, preference, behaviours, etc. in a way that will grow data and user expectations exponentially. The jury is still out in the viability of the Google Glass; early adopters have pointed to limitations such poor battery life, a clumsy and complicated interface and a time-lag.

 

Rao and Jain see a future where traditional search engines will fail to deliver specific answers for complex questions. This limitation will be addressed technology that will use a person’s online profile, including friends and activities to gain insight into their needs and wants and this information would be presented to the person without them requesting it.

 

I agree and disagree with this view that there will be no need to search in the future. To explain my view, one needs to look at information as personal information and general areas of interest, two distinct areas. Personal information is what Rao and Jain largely refer to; a person’s preference, habits, interests and those of associates, etc. This is not likely to change unless something drastic happens. One is likely to keep the same interests such as bird watching, wine collecting, hiking, etc. unless they no longer have the financial resources to maintain those interests, or no longer have the company they did those activities. A person who moves to another country would most likely change their lifestyle, which means they would need to gather new data. From this view point, the need to search might be reduced to an insignificant level as semantic web technology improves.

 

General areas of interest are informed by what the prevailing topics in the media, etc. are and these are not static. One has an option to pick areas of interest and change them as and when they want. There is also no direct correlation between the personal information and areas of interest, at least not in perpetuity. These areas of interest, or fashions, come and go, based on factors such as media coverage, influence of early adopters and the use of the fashion.

 

Web searches will actually increase exponentially in a Web 3.0 world, as it will be much faster to find contextual news or information through an intelligent search than going to multiple sites and trying to make sense of the information from these. What will change though is the focus of the searches. A frequent traveler will no longer need to search for weather information, as the semantic web, will find this for the traveler based on travel or accommodation bookings made.

What is the current academic research focus on Web 3.0?

My first blog entry, titled The notion of “fashion” as a useful model for explaining the emergence of certain technologies or ideas affirms “fashion” as a good vantage point of technologies or ideas that are coming to the fore. The argument is based on the management fashion theory, which states that under conditions of uncertainty, organisations copy innovation models promoted by‘fashion-setting organisation’s and that the rates of diffusion and ultimate levels of adoption of any given management innovation cannot be fully explained by rational/technically efficient perspectives (Abrahamson 1996). Fashion setting organisations are typically management gurus, publications and business schools. In the technology context, information systems (IS) researchers have a role to play in promoting fashions or trends.

 

 

To assess the focus of academic researchers when it comes to Web 3.0, I searched for journals that are in English using the key word “Web 3.0”. The search was conducted on four electronic databases. The databases and results (in brackets) are as follows: JSTOR (30), Science Direct (0), EBSCOHost: Academic Search Complete; Business Source Complete; Computer and Applied Science Complete; Library, Information Science and Technology Abstracts; and Literary Reference Centre (119) and EBSCO Discovery Service (582).

 

The search results can be categorised into two sections: explaining and demystifying Web 3.0, and attempting to identify potential impacts of Web 3.0. None of the studies are empirical, which is what one would expect from research on a ‘fashion’ or IS trend. The papers that explain what Web 3.0 is define the concept and also explain the key terms and give examples of how it would function.

The papers explore the impacts or consequences of Web 3.0 are to an extent speculative in nature and use words such as ‘envision’, ‘possibility’ and‘potential’. An example is the Morris (2011) paper on Web 3.0 implications for online learning, particularly instructors and learners. The semantic web would assist instructors in course development, supporting learners, synchronisation of learner and instructor calendars and also enable instructors to detect when learners need supplemental lessons. The semantic Web can offer learners the possibility of having relevant content delivered to their device of choice without requesting it. It can also structure virtual reality environments that can make studying and working more ‘real’ (Daly 2009). In a Web 3.0 environment, a search by a learner can return a multimedia report with local lectures, relevant blogs, books, television programmes, etc. instead of a list of hits (Ohler 2008).

The studies tend to focus on areas where information plays a crucial role. These are social networking, media, marketing and advertising, education, digital libraries, online learning and health libraries. There are no studies on individual use impacts or effects, which apply to the broader internet community, despite the use of words such as ‘personal web’ in defining Web 3.0. Whilst focused research enriches and strengthens the conversations around Web 3.0 in a particular area, such as social networking, the risk is that it can be perceived as only relevant to certain areas, a niche trend so to speak. This could lead to Web 3.0 failing to cross the ‘chasm’ between early adopters and early majority as depicted in the diagram below.
 

Figure 1: Technology Adoption Curve (Wallis, 2009)

Academic research therefore needs to broaden the research scope on Web 3.0 to areas that are of interest to a broader section of the population. Areas of interest can be broken down into individual and firm level adoption and use of Web 3.0. Under individual use, research could explore factors that encourage and inhibit adoption of a technology such as Web 3.0. At firm level, research could also look at what encourages and inhibits adoption, and how the effects of adopting Web 3.0 should be measured.

References

Abrahamson, E. (1996). Management fashion. Academy of management review, Vol 21(1), p 254-285.

Daly, C. (2009). The Semantic Web and e-Learning. Available Online: http://elearnmag.acm.org/archive.cfm?aid=1555528[Accessed 22 November 2013]

Morris, R. D. (2011). Web 3.0: Implications for online learning, TechTrends, Vol 55(1), p 42-46.

Ohler, J. (2008). The Semantic Web in Education, Educause Quarterly, Vol 31(4), p 7-9.

Wallis, R. (2009). Will the eBook make it across the chasm?, Available Online: http://blogs.capita-libraries.co.uk/panlibus/2009/05/13/will-the-ebook-make-it-across-the-chasm/[Accessed 22 October 2013]

 

The web is alive, response to article by Jeff Stibel in Wired magazine (September 2013 issue)

Jeff Stibel, an entrepreneur and author of Breakpoint: Why the Web will Implode, Search will be Obsolete, and Everything Else you Need to Know about Technology is in Your Brain stirred a hornet’s nest with his provocative take on the future of the Web. His article, titled "The web is dead - and the app (thankfully) killed it" appeared in the Wired magazine (September 2013 issue) and predicts that the Web is going to be replaced by the app. He uses two, unrelated statistics as the basis for this argument. Firstly, the average time spent on the web in the USA has declined from 72 minutes in 2011 to 70 minutes in 2012. Secondly, data from comScore and Alexa shows that the average time an iPhone user in the USA uses apps on an iPhone has gone up from 94 minutes in 2011 to 127 minutes in 2012. The number for Android users is similar. He further mentions mobility as one of the reasons people are ‘using apps instead of the Web’, and information overload from the Web.

There are arguments that can be advanced to explain the decline in time spent on the Web. I will highlight a few that actually point towards increased Web value. Firstly, information is being packaged in a more contextual manner on the Web. This makes it easier to find the information that you want in a manner that largely meets your requirements. This therefore shortens search times, but without compromising the quality of information on the Web. The ability to provide information that a searcher wants and in the way that they want is being driven by technologies such as the Semantic Web. Secondly, due to improved bandwidth speed and improved mark-up language it now faster to access and download webpages and other files on the Web. In short, the Web has become more efficient and users are thus able to get more with less time.

Thirdly, the Web is able to draw information from as wide and diverse a range of sources as possible. Apps on the other hand tend to be islands of information that is not linked to other information and data out there. While the quality of information you can get from an app can be of a better quality than a website, the ability to source information from multiple websites gives the collective an edge over the App. Personally, I have never viewed apps as having the ability replace the Web. Apps serve a different purpose, one that is narrower than the Web. Because of this narrower focus, they will be of more value on specific things but not to an extent that renders the Web obsolete.

Where I agree with the article is on the use of mobile devices, where apps are more suited than the Web. Apps are much easier to operate on mobile devices, and once users get past the security and privacy concerns, they are more likely to rely on that particular app than the Web. Mobile websites are being designed in a way that offers the information on the Web at the ease of accessing it through an app. People will still need information over and above what they can access on apps, and it is for this reason that one should look at three options, the Web, the mobile Web and apps.

 

 

 

 

A thoughleader perspective - Interview with Lee-Roy Chetty, author of Imagining Web 3.0

I recently had the opportunity to pose a few questions and gain insight from someone who has immense interest in Web 3.0 and is possibly South Africa’s authority on the topic, Lee-Roy Chetty. Lee-Roy began his career in advertising at Ogilvy Cape Town, working as a digital strategist on some of South Africa’s biggest and most loved brands. He holds a Master's degree in Media studies from the University of Cape Town and the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. A two-time recipient of the National Research Fund Scholarship, he is currently completing his PhD at the University of Cape Town. He is the author of a book titled Imagining Web 3.0 as well as the foreign correspondent and international relations contributing editor with Radio 2000. He also writes for a number of national and international publications and organisations. Follow him on Twitter @leeroy_chetty. 

 

Question: How did your interest Web 3.0 start off, and what made you write a book on the topic?

Answer: I have always been fascinated with regards to how technology and innovation can be used to foster economic development, improve levels of education and training and also be used to attempt to close the gender gap within society.

The advanced development of the Internet and the cornucopia of information it provides has only been in existence for just over 18 years now. During that time, the Internet has evolved from Web 1.0, or the information web which was characterised by static content.

The current version of the Internet, Web 2.0 or the social Web, is defined by online users communicating, contributing and collaborating. This online user collaboration and sharing has resulted in the breaking down of traditional, monolithic methods of communication and content generation.

I researched the topic of a potential Web 3.0 and wrote a book about the subject as I wanted to make an informed prediction in order to trace the next forecasted phase in the Internet’s development, which through intelligent software will allow the Internet to have the power to learn, intuit and decide, ultimately giving information found on the Internet well defined meaning.   

Q: At what stage of the adoption curve would you say the global Internet community is with regard to Web 3.0? Should one expect a bell-curved adoption of Web 3.0, or is it likely to be exponential?

A: If you want to use the adoption curve as a metric to measure where the concept of Web 3.0 is within society, I would theorise that the idea of a semantic Web can be placed somewhere in the late stage of “innovation” and the early stage of “early adopters”. I say this as we are already beginning to see major technology companies such as Google and Amazon.com experimenting and innovating around semantic Web technologies and capabilities. These innovations are already being embedded into the consumer market, but at this stage it is still very premature within only a select few technology mavens experimenting with the technology. As with most technological innovation and user adoption patterns, I do think the consumer uptake of semantic Web technology characterised by Web 3.0 will resemble a bell-shaped curve, however it is still far too premature to be making that type of prediction in my opinion.

Q: When do you think we will reach the point of mass usage, similar to how social media created this massive uptake of Web 2.0 technologies? What do you think will change the game for Web 3.0?

A: I believe we are a few years away yet before we see a point of mass consumer adoption or mass usage as you say. I think in terms of innovation and technology development, there is still a lot of work to be done. Also, beyond the technological ramifications of a Web 3.0, I think a number of issues need to be resolved in relation to online privacy and protection of user information online, as in my book I argue that in-order for a semantic Web to operate at its full capacity and effectiveness, there will be an inherent need for user information to be freely and easily accessible for search and Web algorithms to make use of to ensure that a truly semantic Web can be fully realised. However, online privacy and access to information and the legal and moral ramifications surrounding this issue will need to be resolved in such a way that online users are more trusting and technology companies are more ethical when it comes to personal information online.

If this can be resolved in a reasonable manner, I think through intelligent software which Web 3.0 will be able to leverage, a semantic Web will have the amazing power to learn, intuit and decide itself, giving information and content found online well defined meaning and will be a game-changing innovation.

Q: Google has recently released a new search algorithm called Hummingbird. What is your take on it, and how should organisations adapt to Hummingbird?

A: As mentioned when discussing where Web 3.0 is in relation to the adoption curve, I believe we are beginning to see a lot of the bigger technology companies attempting to innovate around the concept of a semantic Web. In essence, what Google’s Hummingbird does is an algorithm which is designed to be more precise and provide users online with faster search and information query results. The algorithm is based on the concept of semantic search tools which focuses on user intent versus individual search terms.

I believe that this offering from Google has mainly commercial objectives as it will have a profound impact of Search Engine Optimization (SEO) which will have major repercussions for business and brands who operate within the digital space. From a practical perspective, the need to identify the USP of each business and become authoritative within it is now a key criterion for continued SEO success. The comparison element that has been integrated suggests that semantic mark-up may begin to confer an advantage now when it comes to helping index information in products and services. 

Q: Web 3.0 is gaining prominence together with other concepts such as cloud computing. How do you expect cloud computing, especially security and privacy concern to impact on Web 3.0 adoption and diffusion?

As mentioned in my answer in question 3, I think privacy will play a fundamental role in the development and ultimate adoption of Web 3.0. Beyond the technological ramifications of a Web 3.0, I think a number of issues need to be resolved in relation to online privacy and protection of user information online, as in my book I argue that in-order for a semantic Web to operate at its full capacity and effectiveness, there will be a inherent need for user information to be freely and easily accessible for search and Web algorithms to make use of to ensure that a truly semantic Web can be fully realised. However, online privacy and access to information and the legal and moral ramifications surrounding this issue will need to be resolved in such a way that online users are more trusting and technology companies are more ethical when it comes to personal information online.

If this can be resolved in a reasonable manner, I think through intelligent software which Web 3.0 will be able to leverage, a semantic Web will have the amazing power to learn, intuit and decide itself, giving information and content found online well defined meaning and will be a game-changing innovation.

Q: Search engine experts expect Web 3.o to have its greatest impact in industries like online media and marketing. Are there any local companies that have begun to structure their information in line with semantic technology, and how are they doing this (is there local semantic technology expertise)?

A: I think the emergence of Web 3.0 will have a major impact on the marketing and advertising environment online. The biggest advantage of Web 3.0 technologies and algorithms will be enhanced SEO development which will provide media and marketing organisations and brands with amazing information and insights based on information that they will be able to have access to due to semantic Web technologies which will lead to greater and more meaningful engagement.

In terms of organisations who are attempting to best leverage semantic Web innovation, there aren’t any worth singling out just yet, but look for some big businesses and brands to leverage their SEO capabilities in order to take full advantage of a Web 3.0 in the coming years as that is where a lot of R&D spending and investment will be channelled.

Q: Lastly, how will organisations measure the impact of their online presence in a Web 3.0 world?

A: Ultimately it will be measured first and foremost on profitability, so that metric of measurement will never change. But more subtly, I think another key measurement will be quality engagement and the use of information in a more measured and insightful manner online. That is what the true promise of Web 3.0 will deliver.  

 

The Use of Social Media in the Workplace

Recently, I attended a presentation by a colleague, Jeremia Mthimunye on the use of social media in the workplace as a trend. More information on this topic can be found on his blog http://jamtimunye.wordpress.com . In the presentation, he outlined the evolution of social tools, with emphasis of life before social tools and how the high communication costs and low levels of collaboration created silo systems both inside and outside organisations. Social tools can generally be classified into eight types, namely blogs, social networking sites (e.g. Facebook), virtual social worlds (e.g. Second Life), collaborative projects (e.g. Wikipedia), content communities (eg YouTube), virtual game worlds (e.g. World of Warcraft), social media analytics and social listening tools.

 

Social tools are becoming increasingly embedded in other organisational systems instead of being offered as stand alone systems. I had the opportunity to attend the recent Gartner Symposium in Cape Town, where the latest trends such as big data, the internet of things and information management were discussed. One of the maverick presentations titled ‘Microsoft must kill SharePoint’ suggested that Yammer (Microsoft’s social tool) and cloud computing would obfuscate the need for on premise SharePoint. According to the presenter, Jeffrey Mann (Gartner’s Research VP) Yammer would evolve over time and offer advanced functionality that would make it an integral part of a company’s collaboration tools.

 

The advantages of using social media in the workplace are pretty apparent, whether you look at them internally or externally. Internal benefits would be ease of collaboration among employees, advances knowledge management and a move towards big data management. External benefits that accrue from closer interaction with clients are a better understanding of their needs and an improved company image. The disadvantages, on the other hand are reduced productivity as employees spend more time on social tools, likelihood of data and identity theft, and data overload and its effect on the organisation’s systems.

 

Despite these obvious benefits, I see a number of additional challenges that will influence the adoption of social tools in the workplace. Firstly, culture will play a big role in how social tools become embedded in organisations. An organisation that operates in silos and has not traditionally seen its customers as business partners will not find adoption and proliferation of social media an easy task. The number of followers that some companies have for their Twitter handle, and the frequency of tweets are not reflective of a company that sees social tools as a strategic business tool. Companies that really want to capitalise on social tools need to have dedicated staff that manage and update their social media accounts.

 

Secondly, social tools were introduced with an element of freedom, i.e. it is your account and you are free to write what you want. Over time, companies have started to pay attention to what their staff members write and in a way sought to control this. The incidents involving the former spokesperson of the Hawks Polela fired from Hawks  and an applicant for the Auditor-General position Facebook musings stalk AG hopefulare cases in point.  Staff members will therefore view the incorporation of social tools and the responsibilities and consequences with a level of apprehension.

 

Thirdly, juggling between various social tools and accounts presents its own challenges. Let us take someone with personal social media accounts, who also manages the company’s social media page and also has an account with an internal social tool such as Yammer. Deciding what to post on which account, and the consequences of the post is quite a juggling act for some like this. There are obvious ways to get around this, such as linking all personal ones so that you only post on one and it is shared on the rest.

 

Despite all these challenges, companies need to embrace social tools if they want to be at the forefront of their industries and have real time communication with their clients. Stringent policies and procedures have to be put in place to mitigate the risks associated with social media in the corporate environment. These challenges also present an opportunity for academic researchers, particularly around influencers and consequences for social tool adoption in the corporate world.

 

References

 

 

Mann, J. (2013. Maverick: Should Microsoft Kill Sharepoint? Paper presented at Gartner Symposium/ITxpo Africa 2013, Cape Town, 16-18 September 2013.

 

 

 

 

Google surges on towards semantic searching

In late September 2013, Google unveiled an upgrade of its search algorithm. The algorithm, named Hummingbird, is the first major upgrade in three years. The algorithm has been rewritten to such an extent that one could say this in a replacement and not an upgrade, according to Amit Singhal, Google’s search chief.

 

Any major change to Google’s search algorithm is meant to have a material say in the evolution of the Web. The latest version of The Authority Report by Parse.Ly, which was published in July 2013, estimates that Google has about 65-70 percent of the market share in the USA. The graph below illustrates the global market share, according to NetMarketShare (September 2013). Interestingly, I used Google, to get this information.

 

Figure 1: Global Market Share for Search Engines (September 2013), NetMarketShare

 

Hummingbird has been in use for over a month, and affects about 90% of Google searches. Hummingbird is different from predecessors and upgrades like Penguin, Panda and Caffeine in that it ranks information on a more intelligent understanding of search questions or requests, while the predecessors focused on better indexing of websites.

 

Google has sought to align itself to the semantic Web through a number of initiatives prior to the introduction of Hummingbird. In May 2912, it introduced the Knowledge Graph, a system that connects objects that are popular and relevant for particular searches. The discourse around search engine optimisation is around an inevitable world of semantic searching.

 

David Amerland, a search engine expert and author of Google Semantic Search sees Hummingbird as an extension of Google’s semantic capabilities, as it increases the ability to deal with complex search queries and improves the indexing of entities in Web documents. He sees these capabilities enriching the Knowledge Graph (a Google knowledge base to enhance the search engine’s search results through semantic technology). Hummingbird doesn’t treat search queries as a group of keywords but attempts to understand the meaning of a query. It tries to answer questions and not simply match keywords with documents.

 

Trond Lyngbø, a senior SEO strategist and partner at Metronet in Norway also affirms that the major objective of Hummingbird is to trying to find the intent behind the queries, and offer a solution, It will go a long way towards removing irrelevant information from search engine results pages.

 

Hummingbird will compel businesses to change how they present information on the Web. Web content needs to satisfy the intent of the person making the search. One can see this as an evolution from ‘dumb’ keyword search optimisation, to best guessing what a searcher’s user intent and matching it with relevant content, to contextualising searches and personalizing them according to location, platform, prior searches, etc. Web content needs to be deep and seen as the most relevant piece of content for any given query. The elimination of keywords data from analytics has ushered in an era where authorityship matters more than key words.

 

Rather than ensure that your website captures key words likely to be searched, businesses will need to position themselves as leaders or authorities around a particular area. The quality of content, or the level of expertise will influence search results. Companies will be increasingly more involved in social media to understand what their customers are interested in, and build their content around that.

 

Google has had to make changes of this nature to adapt to realities such as how the Internet is accessed these days. Tablets and mobile devices, with capabilities such as voice activation search options are some of these realities. Companies will therefore also have to adapt, and search engine optimisation strategies will be a business imperative going forward.


Reference

 

Gesenhues, A. (2013). Google’s Hummingbird Takes Flight: SEOs Give Insight On Google’s New Algorithm, Available Online:  http://searchengineland.com/hummingbird-has-the-industry-flapping-its-wings-in-excitement-reactions-from-seo-experts-on-googles-new-algorithm-173030 [Accessed 15 October 2013]

Individual and business-level impacts of Web 3.0

One key feature of Web 3.0 is that it will be able to address the lack of structure and organisation one sees in Web 2.0. The sheer amount of information that is available, the rate at which new information is being published and the inability of Web 2.0 to integrate existing data limit the use of information by users and organisations. Web 3.0 technologies will be greatly enhanced by increased levels of hyperconnectivity between people and devices, complimented by widespread connectivity.

 

One of the main individual-level benefits of Web 3.0 is the personalisation of users’ interactions with their devices. Information will be organised in a more contextual manner, which will make searches more powerful than the algorithms used for Web 2.0 searches. Information will be further personalised based on the individual’s behavior and location. Semantic technologies will, based on an individual’s preferences and interests, gather and package relevant information. Devices will communicate better with each other. For example, it will be possible to log onto your work personal computer using your smart phone and access the network. Internet experts envisage Web 3.0 as a personal assistant that knows practically anything about a particular person and can access all the information on the Internet to answer a question in a way that makes sense to the person.

 

The gradual pervasiveness of the Web 3.0 technologies will present organisations opportunities to enhance efficiencies and build intelligence into business strategies and processes. Businesses will have clearer understanding of customer and employee needs, and respond appropriately to these. Business decisions will be based on more and better business intelligence, both from within and outside the organisation. Companies will have better access to customer data and this will be used to create user specific marketing approaches and products. Organisations will have to go beyond merely creating content by defining a context that links the context to their target market.

 

Web 3.0 will present unparalleled opportunities for businesses to connect and communicate with customers, and also analyse data from their online activities. Businesses will either have to develop strategies to leverage this big data or hope to survive without utilising it. Some companies are already adopting elements of Web 3.0. Amazon, for example is using such technology to provide recommendations to customers based not only on their browsing and buying records, but also those of customers with similar records.

 

Trends such as big data and Web 3.0 have changed how organisations view their data. Data is fast gaining prominence as a strategic business tool. Organisations at the forefront of adopting these trends are recruiting the requisite skills and some have created positions such as the Chief Data Officer.

 

Danny Karam, a senior associate at Booz & Co expects the online media and retail industries to be extremely impacted upon by Web 3.0 and recommends the following steps are crucial in making the transition to Web 3.0:

·         Open up business systems to the internet.

·         Move to real-time analytics and processing.

·         Structure data so that it can be used more effectively.

·         Develop internal web and data talent.

·         Involve customers in all parts of business through social media.

 

A possible unintended consequence of Web 3.0 is that home pages will lose relevance. A user will no longer see the need to go to his/her favourite news website, but will rather search for the sites that present the news on a particular story in a way that interests them the most.

 

References

 

Goodwin, B., (2011), Businesses should prepare for Web 3.0, says Booz&Co, Avaliable Online: http://www.computerweekly.com/news/2240105143/Businesses-should-prepare-for-Web-30-says-BoozCo [Accessed 24 September 2013]